GDFS TRADE Gold Analysis, October 23, 2026

 

Gold Price Performance Today

This morning, the COMEX spot gold price was approximately $4030.70 per ounce, up $6.20 from yesterday’s closing price of $4024.50 per ounce; spot silver was quoted at approximately $54.68 per ounce, roughly unchanged from yesterday’s closing price of $54.59 per ounce. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the opening price of gold was RMB 874.50 per gram, down RMB 5.80 from yesterday’s closing price of RMB 880.30 per gram. On the COMEX gold futures market, the December contract was quoted at approximately $4045.50 per ounce, with the spread between the contract and the spot price narrowing.

 

Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices

The attack on Saudi energy facilities has refocused market attention on Middle East supply risks. The event increased the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil, raising market concerns that a continued rise in oil prices could push up inflation. News reports indicated that rising inflation expectations led the market to reassess the possibility of an interest rate hike at the end of the year, leaving gold prices lacking support in yesterday’s trading. The market’s dominant factors shifted from “the dollar and yields” to “inflation and policy expectations,” putting pressure on gold prices in an overall weak environment.

Yesterday, oil prices strengthened against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting the market to reassess energy supply risks. Rising energy prices led the market to repric the possibility of an interest rate hike at the end of the year. In a high-interest-rate environment, the combination of inflation and high interest rates made it difficult for gold prices to gain momentum during rebounds, hindering their stabilization in yesterday’s weak market. Oil price movements were one of the main factors suppressing gold prices yesterday.

So far this week, the dollar has generally declined slightly, reflecting market adjustments in positioning in response to recent inflation and policy signals. While a weaker dollar theoretically supports gold prices, the strength is insufficient to offset the pressure from rising inflation expectations and renewed interest rate hike risks. The market’s focus has shifted from the dollar to inflation and policy direction, preventing the dollar’s decline from providing effective support for gold prices.

The sharp drop in US Treasury yields yesterday was primarily driven by safe-haven buying, rather than declining inflation or a dovish policy shift. Markets increased their allocation to US Treasuries amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, causing a significant short-term decline in yields. Since the yield decline did not reflect easing inflationary pressures, gold prices failed to benefit and instead remained under pressure amid rising inflation expectations.

Today, the US October manufacturing and services PMIs will be released. The market is awaiting this data to determine whether the US economy is slowing further, thus influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected PMIs could reinforce high interest rate expectations, putting downward pressure on gold prices; weaker PMIs could provide short-term support for gold prices.

 

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, gold prices opened at 4139 and fluctuated throughout the day, ultimately closing at 4025, forming a long bearish candlestick, reflecting significantly increased selling pressure. The chart shows that gold prices failed to stabilize after the opening, with selling pressure increasing throughout the European and US sessions, pushing prices down to the 4020-4030 range. The overall trend shows a continuation of the weak pattern, with short-term momentum clearly bearish.

Gold prices are currently below the 20-day moving average at 4137, maintaining a weak short-term structure. Only if prices can regain a foothold above 4135-4150 can the short-term structure be improved. The 50-day moving average is at 4302, and gold prices have been consistently below it, reflecting a continued weak medium-term trend. The significant distance between gold prices and the 50-day moving average indicates that a medium-term rebound requires further fundamental support.

The RSI is at 35, already in the weak zone, reflecting bearish market momentum. If the RSI falls below 33-34, a further acceleration of the short-term decline should be anticipated; if the RSI recovers to 40-45, it will help gold prices recover from their lows.

 

Trading Strategy

Yesterday, gold prices fluctuated throughout the day, reflecting significant directional selling pressure in the market against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations, policy repricing, and safe-haven flows into US Treasuries. Rising oil prices increased the market’s expectation of an interest rate hike by the end of the year, while the sharp drop in US Treasury yields, driven by safe-haven buying, failed to provide support for gold prices. The overall structure indicates that gold prices remain in a short-term weak phase with limited upside potential.

The first support zone is at 3980-4020, which is the extension of yesterday’s low and the first key level to observe whether the short-term decline can stop. If gold prices find support in this zone, a technical rebound may occur; however, if this zone is broken, the next support zone is at 3900-3930, the lower edge of the previous consolidation zone and a key defensive position in the medium-term structure. If gold prices fall below 3900, caution is needed as the decline may accelerate again and potentially enter a new round of weakness.

The first resistance zone is at 4080-4100, the area where yesterday’s rebound failed to hold, and the first resistance level for a short-term rebound. If gold prices can break through this zone, the next resistance zone is at 4150-4170, a key level for whether the short-term structure can be repaired. Given rising inflation expectations and a hawkish policy stance, gold prices are likely to encounter resistance in this area. Consider establishing short-term selling positions and trading in line with the weak trend.

The US October PMI will be released tonight, one of the most important economic activity data points this week. If the PMI is stronger than expected, it may reinforce expectations of high interest rates, putting downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, a weak PMI may provide short-term upward momentum for gold prices. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the data release and adjust positions according to market direction after the data release to reduce volatility risk.