GDFS TRADE Gold Analysis, October 22, 2026

Gold Price Performance Today

This morning, the COMEX spot gold price was approximately $4113.50 per ounce, down $27.50 from yesterday’s closing price of $4141.00 per ounce; spot silver was quoted at approximately $57.30 per ounce, down $0.68 from yesterday’s closing price of $57.98 per ounce. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the opening price of gold was 890.00 yuan per gram, up 2.50 yuan from yesterday’s closing price of 887.50 yuan per gram. On the COMEX gold futures market, the December contract was quoted at approximately $4129.90 per ounce, with the spread between the contract and the spot price narrowing.

 

Main Factors Affecting Gold Prices

The US dollar index fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday, slightly declining at the close. The weakening dollar lowered the cost of gold priced in dollars, providing some support for gold prices. Although the dollar remained relatively strong, the pullback at the close slightly increased buying interest at lower levels, keeping prices stable within the $4100-$4140 range.

US long-term bond yields remained high on Wednesday, with market concerns about fiscal deficits and long-term debt supply pressures keeping yields high for both 10-year and 30-year maturities. High yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making buyers reluctant to chase prices at higher levels. Gold prices encountered resistance after a short-term rebound, reflecting that the high yield environment remains a significant factor limiting further price increases.

While the attack on Saudi Arabia kept the market concerned about Middle East supply risks, oil prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, closing slightly lower. The decline in oil prices eased market concerns about short-term inflationary pressures, reducing the pressure on gold prices from the high-interest-rate environment. This provided some support for gold prices during yesterday’s narrow trading range, but due to relatively high oil prices and lingering inflation expectations, the rebound in gold prices lacked sustainability.

Today, Thursday, the US initial jobless claims data will be released, a key employment-related data point for the week. The market is awaiting this data to determine whether the US labor market is slowing further, thus influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate expectations. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce high interest rate expectations, putting pressure on gold prices; weaker data could provide short-term support. A wait-and-see attitude kept gold prices in a narrow trading range during the Asian session.

 

Technical Analysis

Yesterday, gold prices opened at 4128 and traded in a narrow range throughout the day, reaching a low of 4105 and a high of 4142, ultimately closing at 4141, forming a consolidation candlestick with short upper and lower shadows. The chart shows that gold prices encountered selling pressure above 4140, reflecting limited rebound strength. The overall trend is a weak recovery pattern, with the market remaining cautious awaiting new macroeconomic signals.

Gold prices are currently below the 20-day moving average at 4155, indicating a weak short-term correction. A move above 4155-4170 would improve the short-term structure. The 50-day moving average is at 4311, and gold prices have been consistently below it, reflecting a continued weak medium-term trend. The significant distance between gold prices and the 50-day moving average suggests that a medium-term rebound requires further fundamental support.

The RSI is at 41, in the neutral-to-weak zone. A break above 50-55 would help gold prices challenge above 4200; conversely, a drop below 38 should raise concerns about a potential pullback after the rebound ends.

 

Trading Strategy

Yesterday, gold prices stabilized in a narrow range, reflecting a lack of follow-through buying despite rising oil prices and a strong dollar. Technically, gold prices remain below major moving averages, indicating a weak short-term and medium-term structure. Based on comprehensive analysis, a more prudent approach for today’s trading is to primarily sell on rallies, supplemented by light buying at lower levels.

The first support zone is at 4100-4120, which is an extension of yesterday’s low. If gold prices find support in this area, a short-term rebound may occur. However, if this zone is broken, the next support zone is at 4040-4060, the lower edge of the previous consolidation zone and a key defensive position in the medium-term structure. If gold prices fall below 4040, be wary of a potential acceleration in the decline.

 

The first resistance zone is at 4150-4170, the area that yesterday’s rebound failed to break through, and also close to the first resistance level for a short-term rebound. If gold prices can break through this zone, the next resistance zone is at 4220-4250, the area where major moving averages are located, a key level for whether the medium-term trend can be repaired. If gold prices encounter resistance in this zone, consider establishing short-term selling positions and trading in line with the weak consolidation pattern.