GDFS TRADE Gold Analysis, October 21, 2026
Gold Price Performance Today
This morning, the COMEX spot gold price was approximately $4117.20 per ounce, down $8.30 from yesterday’s closing price of $4125.50 per ounce; spot silver was quoted at approximately $57.77 per ounce, down $0.23 from yesterday’s closing price of $58.00 per ounce. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the opening price of gold was 888.00 yuan per gram, down 1.78 yuan from yesterday’s closing price of 889.78 yuan per gram. On the COMEX gold futures market, the December contract was quoted at approximately $4135.30 per ounce, with the spread between the contract and the spot price remaining stable.
Main Factors Affecting Gold Prices
The US dollar remained relatively strong on Tuesday, mainly influenced by policy signals from the US Treasury Secretary and expectations regarding US Treasury supply. The US dollar index rose yesterday, increasing the cost of gold priced in dollars and weakening buying interest at higher levels. The rebound in gold prices above $4150 failed to continue, reflecting that the strength of the dollar remains a significant factor suppressing gold prices.
US long-term bond yields remained high on Tuesday, with the market still concerned about fiscal deficits and long-term debt supply pressures, keeping yields high at both the 10-year and 30-year rates. High yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making buyers reluctant to chase prices at higher levels. Gold prices encountered resistance after a short-term rebound, reflecting that the high yield environment remains a significant factor limiting further price increases.
Although the attack on the Strait of Hormuz kept the market concerned about supply risks, oil prices experienced a significant sharp drop on Tuesday, mainly due to the market reassessing the impact of the Middle East situation on actual supply and some traders taking profits. The sharp drop in oil prices eased market concerns about short-term inflationary pressures, reducing the pressure of a high-interest-rate environment on gold prices. This allowed gold prices to maintain some support during yesterday’s narrow trading range, with buying support appearing at lower levels. However, due to the continued volatility in oil prices and lingering inflation expectations, the rebound in gold prices remains unsustainable.
Under the combined influence of a strong dollar, high long-term bond yields, and oil prices, gold prices are expected to maintain a narrow range during the Asian session. Tonight’s US crude oil inventory data will be released, and the market is awaiting this data to determine whether oil prices will rise further, thus impacting inflation expectations and interest rate direction.
Technical Analysis
Yesterday, gold prices opened at 4142 and traded in a narrow range throughout the day, reaching a low of 4112 and a high of 4156, ultimately closing at 4125, forming a consolidation candlestick with relatively short upper and lower shadows. The chart shows that gold prices encountered selling pressure above 4150, reflecting limited rebound strength. The overall trend is a weak recovery pattern, with the market remaining cautious awaiting new macroeconomic signals.
Gold prices are currently below the 20-day moving average of 4161, and the short-term structure remains weak and in a corrective phase. If the price can regain the 4160-4170 level, the short-term structure may improve. The 50-day moving average is at 4316, and the price has been consistently below this level, reflecting a still weak medium-term trend. The distance between the price and the 50-day moving average remains significant, meaning that a medium-term rebound still requires more fundamental support.
The RSI is 42, a slight improvement from the previous few days, but still in the neutral-to-weak zone. If the RSI breaks through 50-55, it will help the price challenge above 4200; conversely, if the RSI falls below 40, caution is needed regarding a potential pullback after the rebound ends.
Trading Strategy
Yesterday, the price stabilized in a narrow range, reflecting a lack of market support despite high oil prices and a strong dollar. Technically, the price remains below major moving averages, and the short-term and medium-term structures remain weak. In summary, a more prudent approach today would be to “primarily sell on rallies, with light buying at lower levels as a secondary strategy.”
The first support zone is at 4100-4120, which is an extension of yesterday’s low. If gold prices find support in this zone, a short-term rebound may occur. However, if this zone is broken, the next support zone is at 4040-4060, the lower edge of the previous consolidation zone and a key defensive position in the medium-term structure. If gold prices break below 4040, be wary of a possible acceleration of the decline.
The first resistance zone is at 4150-4170, the area that yesterday’s rebound failed to break through, and also close to the first resistance level for a short-term rebound. If gold prices can break through this zone, the next resistance zone is at 4220-4250, the area where major moving averages are located, a key position for whether the medium-term trend can be repaired. If gold prices encounter resistance in this zone, consider establishing short-term short positions and trading in the direction of the weak consolidation pattern.
Tonight’s crude oil inventory data will be released, which may affect oil prices and inflation expectations. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the data release and adjust positions according to market direction after the data release to reduce volatility risk.
prices encounter resistance in this zone, consider establishing short-term selling positions and trading in line with the weak consolidation pattern.