GDFS TRADE Gold Analysis, October 19, 2026

 

Gold Price Performance Today

This morning, the COMEX spot gold price was approximately $4173.70 per ounce, up $8.30 from Friday’s closing price of $4165.40 per ounce; spot silver was quoted at approximately $57.34 per ounce, up $0.37 from Friday’s closing price of $56.97 per ounce. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the opening price of gold was RMB 899.25 per gram, down RMB 2.32 from Friday’s closing price of RMB 901.57 per gram. On the COMEX gold futures market, the December contract was quoted at approximately $4194.00 per ounce, with the spread between the contract and the spot price remaining stable.

Key Factors Affecting Gold Prices

Former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh stated on Friday that the US economy has shown signs of slowing, and if inflation continues to decline, the Fed does not need to rush to raise interest rates again. Warsh’s comments weakened market bets on a year-end rate hike, which the market interpreted as a “decreased probability of a year-end rate hike,” providing support for gold prices and keeping them relatively stable within a narrow trading range throughout the day. This is one of the main reasons why gold prices were able to stabilize within the 4160-4200 range last Friday.

After digesting Warsh’s remarks, the market has significantly reduced its expectations for rate hikes in October and November, shifting its focus to the December meeting. Reuters reported that the market currently believes that “the probability of a year-end rate hike has decreased, but it has not been completely ruled out.” This combination of “short-term dovishness and continued uncertainty at the end of the year” meant that although gold prices rebounded last Friday, they failed to break above 4200. Gold prices fell back to 4165 after encountering resistance at 4199, reflecting the market’s continued caution regarding the policy direction at the end of the year.

The US dollar weakened slightly on Friday, while US Treasury yields underwent a short-term correction after several days of increases. The weaker dollar lowered the cost of gold priced in dollars, while the short-term decline in yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Although gold prices still faced selling pressure below $4200, the overall selling pressure was significantly weaker than in previous days, allowing gold prices to maintain a narrow trading range on Friday.

Oil prices rose on Friday due to supply concerns, reigniting market worries about energy-driven inflation. Rising oil prices typically push up inflation expectations, and in a high-interest-rate environment, the combination of inflation and high interest rates makes gold prices lack support during rebounds. News reports indicate that while the weaker dollar and yields provided support for gold prices, the rise in oil prices offset some of the positive factors, causing gold prices to encounter resistance below $4200.

 

Technical Analysis

Gold opened at 4170 last Friday and traded in a narrow range throughout the day, reaching a high of 4199 and a low of 4147, ultimately closing at 4165, forming a narrow consolidation candlestick with short upper and lower shadows. The price action shows that gold fluctuated repeatedly within the 4170-4200 range, reflecting a wait-and-see approach after digesting Warsh’s remarks.

Friday’s closing price of 4165 is slightly below the 20-day moving average of 4183, indicating that the short-term trend remains weak and corrective. A return above 4185-4200 would be needed for the short-term structure to improve. The 50-day moving average is at 4327, and gold has been consistently below it, reflecting a still weak medium-term trend. The significant distance between the gold price and the 50-day moving average suggests that a medium-term rebound requires further fundamental support.

The RSI is 47, an improvement from last week, reflecting a slight recovery in short-term momentum, but it has not yet entered a strong zone. If the RSI breaks through 50-55, it will help gold prices challenge above 4200; conversely, if the RSI falls below 40, caution is needed regarding a potential pullback after the rebound ends.

 

Trading Strategy

Last Friday, gold prices stabilized in a narrow range, reflecting the market’s reduced expectations of interest rate hikes following Warsh’s speech, providing support at lower levels. However, technically, gold prices remain below major moving averages, and the short- and medium-term structures remain weak. Overall, a more prudent approach today would be to “primarily sell on rallies, with light buying at lower levels as a secondary strategy.”

The first support zone is at 4130-4150, which is the extension of last Friday’s low. If gold prices find support in this zone, a short-term rebound may occur. However, if this zone is broken, the next support zone is at 4070-4100, which is the lower edge of the previous consolidation zone and a key defensive position in the medium-term structure. If gold prices fall below 4070, be wary of a possible acceleration of the decline.

The first resistance zone is at 4190-4210, which is the area that failed to be broken during last Friday’s rebound and is also close to the first resistance level for a short-term rebound. If gold prices can break through this zone, the next resistance zone is at 4270-4300, which is the area where major moving averages are located and is a key position for whether the medium-term trend can be repaired. If gold prices encounter resistance in this zone, consider establishing short-term selling positions and trading in line with the weak consolidation pattern.